Simulating Attribute Aging in the PNFL

[Charlie-49ers]

Introduction
In order to more accurately reflect the reality of aging within the NFL, it is possible to establish a process for aged player attributes in the PNFL. It is well acknowledged that legendary players such as Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith did not retain their peak speed (SP), acceleration (AC), and other physical characteristics throughout their entire careers. The primary question is how to effectively implement a model that reflects this progression.
Establishing Thresholds for Attribute Decline by Position
The first step is to reach a consensus regarding the age or career year at which players at each position typically begin to experience a decline in their physical attributes. For instance, a hypothetical threshold could be set at age seven for halfbacks (HB), age ten for quarterbacks (QB), and age eight for defensive ends (DE). These thresholds are preliminary and open for discussion, but they serve as a starting point for modeling the onset of attribute reduction.

Randomized Attribute Reduction Process
Once a player reaches the defined threshold, the following process is applied annually:
• Randomly select up to two attributes from the following: None, Speed (SP), Acceleration (AC), Endurance (EN), and Strength (ST). In this selection, it is possible that zero, one, or two attributes are chosen for reduction.
• For each selected attribute, randomly apply a reduction of either 0, 1, or 2 points to both Actual (ACT) and Potential (POT) ratings. For example, if Speed (SP) is selected and the random reduction value is 2, a wide receiver (WR) with 84 ACT and 84 POT would be reduced to 82/82. If the reduction is 1, a WR with 83 ACT and 84 POT would be reduced to 82/83. If the reduction is 0, the WR's ratings will remain unchanged for that year.
• This procedure is repeated each year after the player reaches their position-specific threshold, ensuring a gradual decline in physical attributes over time. For example, if the WR starts the year at 82/84 and the reduction in value is 1, the new ratings would be 81/83, while still allowing for potential improvement during training camp (TC).
Next Steps and Consensus

Although the proposed process appears feasible in theory, the immediate priority is to review and reach agreement on the threshold years for each position. Once consensus is achieved, if possible, I can proceed with the implementation of the detailed aging process.

Impact on Other Processes
It is important to note that, unless otherwise overlooked, this proposed attribute aging process does not affect current procedures regarding physical exams, the transfer of physicals, or the unretirement process.

Constructive (emphasis added) criticism is welcome.

[Dean-Atlanta]

I guess with each position we should have an "age of peak abilities" which is the age which is the last year they do not age. Maybe this is around 7 yrs at many positions, older for QBs and K/P?

Maybe the first few years beyond peak they should decline 0-1 points per physical attribute? Maybe Beyond 4+ yrs after peak maybe they decline 2-3 points maxx per physical attribute?

I am guessing SP,AC, AG, and ST are included in this, likely not EN and definitely not IN and DI. Even a QB who has played 17 seasons still has no decline in IN and DI.

I think with a system like this, physicals might start to become obsolete and retirement mostly a non-issue, because players that decline too much to hold a roster spot get released and soon after removed in the post-SB purge.

[Charlie-49ers]

Good point! EN would be included. The two randomly selected attributes would be from AC, AG, EN, SP & ST.

[Justin-Chicago]

Hypothesis:The top performers at a position, who are in turn the most highly compensated, should be more likely to have long careers. Think Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, Jerry Rice.

How to simulate in the PNFL: Without a salary cap it’s hard to do. But if, for instance, Baker Mayfield wins another SB next year, he should have a reduced chance of failing his physical vs other QBs same age.

Just a concept for discussion. I haven’t done the research but this “feels” accurate. Please tear it apart…

[Matt-Jacksonville]

I'll add more later once I've had time to do some research, but I think at some point prior to the implementation of this we need to give some thought to how we will apply this once we design the process. Do we automatically apply to all players over the threshold instantly or do we phase it in somehow over a season or two?

[Charlie-49ers]

Interesting concept! Maybe the two Super Bowl teams only get random numbers of 0 & 1 and skip the 2.

[Dean-Atlanta]

Does EN actually decline in aging players or just SP-AC-AG-ST? Maybe this is a question we should answer in deciding whether EN is included in simulating aging.

[Matt-Jacksonville]

I would think it would see some decline, but maybe not as much as the rest? They stay in shape and still workout, but as injuries and time wear on the body we all have less stamina than when we were younger.

[Charlie-49ers]

As stated, only two of the five attributes would be selected each year randomly for possible reduction. So, EN would have a 60% chance of not being selected. The randomness spreads it out, ensuring that players will age at different rates and in different attributes.

[Charlie-49ers]

Here is a potential enhancement to the concept. I just checked the average tenure for NFL positions. Let's use HBs, which is 2.57. Now, let's round up and double it for the PNFL. So, at seven years, the first year over the threshold, we would use the initial formula, two attributes, but random numbers of 0 & 1 for years 7, 8 & 9. To start his 10th year, he would be subject to the full formula, or two attributes subject to 0, 1 & 2 potential reductions. Based on the randomness, some players will get hit, others will skate on key attributes.