When I ran the XFBS, I used this Power Poll as our BCS poll for seeding the playoff teams. Out of curiosity, I punched in the PNFL numbers to see what it would tell us. I know some of you will immediately be critics, but it worked perfectly for seeding our playoffs for multiple seasons. We wanted to make sure it was based somewhat on the Standings power poll (something we all are familiar with), but also factored in W/L streaks.
Here is some extra info about it:
THE POWER RANKING FORMULA: [(W X 2) + Opp W] - [(L X 2) + Opp L] + Streak Pts = POWER SCORE
W: Purely based on your overall wins as shown in the Standings
Opp W: This equates to a Quality Win Bonus. It is based on the "Opp W" amount on the Standings Power Poll. It essentially rewards teams for beating teams with good records.
W Pwr points: [(W X 2) + Opp W]
L: Purely based on your overall losses as shown in the Standings
Opp L: This equates to a Quality Loss Penalty. It is the opposite of the "Opp W" amount on the Standings Power Poll in that it totals the losses of the opponents you lost to. It essentially punishes teams for losing to teams with bad records.
L Pwr points: [(L X 2) + Opp L]
Streak Pts: The Streak Pts is based on the team's current winning or losing streak (e.g. "W3" in the Standings). Using W3 as an example, the Streak Pts would be +3. Using L1 as an example, the Streak Pts is -1. Your current win / loss streak can send you up or down the rankings each week just like in the NCAA.
POWER SCORE: W Pwr points - L Pwr points + Streak Pts
Tiebreakers: The Streak Adjustment should create a sufficient distinction between teams to avoid requiring a tiebreaker by the end of the season. That said, if needed tiebreakers are as follows:
T1 Head-to-Head victories (If 3 or more teams have the same XFBS score, T1 H2H cannot be used as a tiebreaker - in this scenario, the next tiebreaker is used.) followed by
T2 highest-to-lowest Total Wins,
T3 highest-to-lowest Win Power Score ([your wins X 2] + total wins of opponents that you beat),
T4 lowest-to-highest Loss Power Score ([your losses X 2] + total losses of opponents that beat you)and then
T5 highest-to-lowest Streak Adjustment will be used as tiebreakers.
T6 previous rank
T7 Pyth.
Pyth is an equation that uses accumulated Points For (PF) and Points Against (PA) to generate a score that is also used to project your possible Win total for the season. The formula is: PA to the 2.37 power / (PA to the 2.37 power + PF to the 2.37 power). This component can also help compare two teams that have the same record (i.e., the one with the higher score is better offensively & defensively than the other so far). You can learn more about it here: https://ziggygolf.substack.com/p/pythagorean-expectation-for-nfl-betting
