PNFL

I attempted to use the available data from the Season Stats to put James' theory to the test. To refresh your memory, in the podcast he attended, he indicated that an important indicator of offensive and defensive efficiency is how much a team doesn't need to rely on 3rd/4th down conversions to get first downs. I crunched the numbers in Excel and this is what it spit out.

Surprise! The most efficient offense is Green Bay. They have the highest percentage of 1st down conversions on 1st and 2nd down. The least efficient offense is New York. Not a surprise.



As expected, the most efficient defense is Chicago. They allow the lowest percentage of 1st down conversions on 1st and 2nd down. To my shock, this analysis revealed San Diego allows the highest percentage of conversions on 1st and 2nd down. To get better, it looks like I need to take a good look at what I'm doing wrong on 1st and 2nd down on defense.

I just noticed that Detroit is tied with Chicago on the defensive side. Important to highlight that. Certainly explains the victory over Washington last week. Fix your offense, Mark, and you'll be scary.

Here is another look. For this analysis, I created a Conversion Efficiency score that is basically a weight of conversions made on 1st & 2nd vs 3rd down

[(1st2nd % X 1st2nd Ct) + (3rd % X 3rd Ct)] / (1st2nd Ct + 3rd Ct)

Offensive conversion efficiency:


Defensive conversion efficiency:

Coincidentally, this topic has been on my mind lately. You can't make a living depending on 3rd down.