Is there something wrong with defense

[Steve-Buffalo Bills]

As James said in another thread, we just had one of the highest scoring seasons in the history of the league. We don't need to be nerfing defense by boosting offense. I agree 100% if true. I haven't looked at the numbers but I do think this lends itself to real discussion. At the very least we probably should leave all defensive play design, game plan and profile rules alone for now so we can see if this a fluke or a real problem needing a possible solution next offseason.

I can't even imagine where to begin with this. There simply isn't enough information. Probably best to begin by identifying the source of the issue. Probably need to do a comparative analysis of key stats first.

I have so many questions:

- Have offensive passing stats increased? Running stats? Both?
- Is it a play problem (simply can't defend new offensive plays yet)?
- Is it a game plan problem (maybe we need to reduce the category requirement to 5 across the board if 6 is nerfing defense too much)?
- Is it a profile problem (do we need to consider going back to calling two types of plays instead of three or consider allowing PL in all 6-10 situations again)?
- Is it a proliferation of certain play routes causing this that we need to defend better? I tried to create a couple of plays last season to stop the rollout timed passes better, but they are vulnerable to other plays.

Would love to hear everyone's thoughts. I think this can be a great discussion point for the coming season. Certainly a great topic for future podcasts.

[Jerry-Redskins]

I know an old smart FBPRO player who once said that too many teams focus on offence and all that glitz versus defense. I work to expect to keep my opponents to 20 points or less each week. I can only speak to what I perceive from my weekly game planning, but it does appear that most teams spend more time on the O side.

From an O perspective I saw a couple of opponent trends. First was the heavy PMM on second down. The first half of the season more teams moved to what looked like 80% PMMM on second and 6-10 and even the other yards to go. It seemed to be an attempt to follow what the Jets have been doing. (I for one can never find a way to mimic the damn Jets. No matter how hard I try my QB and WR's are just are not as effective with it. ) As the season progressed, I saw some shift back to a little more balance. Second, it seemed certain successful teams ran the ball more successfully. I haven't ran those numbers league wise yet, but my sense is running made a small comeback at times this season. I even noticed a team must have ran like 150 offensive PRD plays which would seem to be a bad strategy that likely helped the opponents more.

Defensively, I noticed more teams using things similar to my stuff. I struggled a little offensively until I adjusted a bit. I also noticed several times people ran very limited plays in a category and in calling. I have always thought it was poor strategy to only call the same 5 plays the majority of the time. Sure, if we guess right it is great, but we are playing against a human and odds are we will not hit as well as we plan. Hence my theory to use more plays and calling on defense to cover my bases. I always want some answer to my opponent and hope my D coordinator makes the right calls during the game. I definitely lean to cover what I expect the most, but like something in my back pocket. There are a couple of teams, Atlanta, Chicago, and this season Detroit that will change some things 100% opposite on you.

We also just seemed to have a few teams really struggle and the "punk" Cardinals have a weird season. This likely boosted things a bit. We should probably put together a series of charts with several O and D data points and watch trends over time. It would be interesting each season to see any changes.

[Matt-Jacksonville]

I was actually compiling some numbers on this and will share my findings when I'm finished.

[Matt-Jacksonville]

Here is the result of my research. Top is the #1 offense or defense each year and bottom is the #18 offense or defense each year. High and Low is the highest or lowest PF or PA each year.

Stats last ten years

stats.jpg (72.42 KiB) Viewed 5076 times

[Matt-Jacksonville]

From my observations, I don't think our yardage has increased much, but what I've seen is that our points against has went up a bit. I know that personally I lean more to being an offense guy and have paid more attention to that side; however, this offseason, I'm planning on working on defense more.

[Mitch-Oilers]

The biggest change in league scoring is that fact that Thomas and Justin didn't fully prepare for each game. Typically, they give up 50% fewer points than they did this past season.

[Matt-Jacksonville]

Justin was 9th in PA and Thomas was 12th. Neither was the High or the Low.

[Matt-Jacksonville]

Something else I found interesting is how the totals are a bit of a rollercoaster up one year and down the next.

[Jerry-Redskins]

That's why data over time trend means more. Each season alone is not enough of a data point.