Draft Pool Opinions
Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:56 am
Every year we have discussions regarding the quality of the Draft Pool, which I will be tweaking, now that the 49ers will be watching the playoffs. As some of you have noticed/commented, the Draft Pool has become better these last few Drafts due to the random method of generating attributes I am now using for both ACTs and POTs. However, it never turns out perfectly (randomness), and I always have to do a little tweaking. Below is the general concept using the Cornerback position for an example.
Currently, we have 180 Cornerbacks in the League, 147 of which are assigned to teams, either on active rosters or Practice Squads (82%), and the remainder are Free Agents. I anticipate that some small number of these will retire, and that I will make available approximately 25 Rookies in the upcoming Draft. In this regard, we all have our own version of evaluating players relative to their ranking within their respective position, as do I. As such, I have ranked all 180 CBs by potential, best to worst. In this regard, of the 25 Rookie CBs to be drafted, how many should be in the top 25 POT players when I add them to the current CB Pool? How many in the next 25 or 50 or in the top 100 POT players?
For example, in the last Draft, 28 CBs were available, 16 of which were drafted or picked up from free agency. Of the 16 on teams, 3 are in the top 25 POT players, 5 in the 26-50 POTs, 2 in the 51-75 POTs, and 2 in the 76-100 POTs. As you can see, in the last Draft, not every team even got a chance to draft even one top 100 POT Cornerback. BTW, I use a similar distribution for the other positions where only one player might qualify for the top 25 POT slots, but the average is around two. So, while I agree to some extent that there is compression within positions (everyone has one or two great to good Cornerbacks, but so do the NFL teams), I also have to keep the Draft interesting, making available a couple of good players at each position. If my random formula makes a player in the top five or ten, then I would consider him a great player.
Anyway, any and all suggestions as to how to modify my current approach to the Draft Pool are welcome.
Currently, we have 180 Cornerbacks in the League, 147 of which are assigned to teams, either on active rosters or Practice Squads (82%), and the remainder are Free Agents. I anticipate that some small number of these will retire, and that I will make available approximately 25 Rookies in the upcoming Draft. In this regard, we all have our own version of evaluating players relative to their ranking within their respective position, as do I. As such, I have ranked all 180 CBs by potential, best to worst. In this regard, of the 25 Rookie CBs to be drafted, how many should be in the top 25 POT players when I add them to the current CB Pool? How many in the next 25 or 50 or in the top 100 POT players?
For example, in the last Draft, 28 CBs were available, 16 of which were drafted or picked up from free agency. Of the 16 on teams, 3 are in the top 25 POT players, 5 in the 26-50 POTs, 2 in the 51-75 POTs, and 2 in the 76-100 POTs. As you can see, in the last Draft, not every team even got a chance to draft even one top 100 POT Cornerback. BTW, I use a similar distribution for the other positions where only one player might qualify for the top 25 POT slots, but the average is around two. So, while I agree to some extent that there is compression within positions (everyone has one or two great to good Cornerbacks, but so do the NFL teams), I also have to keep the Draft interesting, making available a couple of good players at each position. If my random formula makes a player in the top five or ten, then I would consider him a great player.
Anyway, any and all suggestions as to how to modify my current approach to the Draft Pool are welcome.