Quarterbacks

[Steve-LA Chargers]

I performed a basic analysis (not an exhaustive one) on my QBs (plus Dak). It wasn't an exhaustive analysis though. My preliminary finding is that QB skill ratings don't really matter at all in the PNFL. It's purely the supporting cast, the OL quality and the play selection that matters, not their skill ratings.

If you look at Mac Jones, his actual ratings still have a ways to go to be prolific. Yet he was unstoppable last season. If you look at Kizer, he has his shortcomings in IN, yet he has led my offense quite well for about three seasons. His INT total last season (9) was kind of the norm for QBs in the league.

When I ran the XFBS, we had mobile QBs with ST in the 80s, IN in the 80s and DI in the 70s and pure pocket passer QBs with PNFL preferred ST, IN, DI ratings, but the mobile QBs performed just as well.

We all may see my 5th round DTR pick as the biggest reach of the draft (it was my last pick; if I had a 7th, he might have been a 7th instead). It was so much of a reach that I went from 4th best draft to near bottom. But is he really a reach? I ran many sims with him as my QB1 and he performed just as well as Kizer. I was totally baffled by this. I even used him 'as is' without a TC yet. This QB is dumb as a rock (in real life too). Does low IN possibly mean the QB will simply sling it faster and not over-read the defense? Even with his current 94 ST, he was completing deep passes, so it made me doubt the importance of 96 ST too. For me, I think it's becoming increasingly evident that how maxed' a QB is in ST, IN, DI might not matter. That said, there is probably a floor that matters for QBs but ALL of the QBs in the league (including DTR) are way above that floor.

This leads me to believe we are placing way too much emphasis on perfect ratings for QBs when in reality any of them can do the job if we build a great roster around them and select the right plays.

I may be willing to start Justin Herbert or even DTR purely to prove my point. Only thing holding me back is I don't want to take away from Kizer's icon status. Herbert and possibly DTR will simply have to get their chance later.

Thoughts?

[Justin-Chicago]

Chicago’s QB room is comprised of the last three losing SB starters.

That is my only thought.

[Steve-LA Chargers]

Chicago’s QB room is comprised of the last three losing SB starters.

That is my only thought.

Definitely not bad QBs. All with 77+SP, 78+AC, 80+AG, 96ST, 70+HA, 84+EN, 91+IN, 83+DI.

A QB1 1 Justin Fields OK 4 0-0 0
77 79 80 96 70 84 92 84
78 79 81 96 71 84 92 84

A QB2 3 Sam Darnold OK 9 0-0 0
81 81 81 96 70 85 91 83
81 81 81 96 70 86 91 83

O QB3 14 Dak Prescott OK 13 0-0 0
77 78 80 96 71 86 92 84
77 78 80 96 71 86 92 84

Meanwhile, the last two Super Bowl winners:

A QB1 1 Mac Jones OK 3 0-0 0
80 77 77 96 69 85 91 83
80 78 79 96 70 87 92 84

A QB1 1 DeShone Kizer OK 11 0-0 0
80 79 80 96 71 86 90 83
81 79 80 96 71 86 90 83

And then there's DTR with his below 90 IN with great ratings in everything else:
IR QB 4 Dorian Robinson OK R 0-0 0
80 78 79 94 70 87 85 83
81 78 81 96 70 87 87 83

[Matt-Jacksonville]

I would tend to disagree to an extent. One thing I can see is if you are trying to use an Air Raid and throw deep every play DTR wouldn't be nearly as effective as a 96 ST QB. But, I do agree that if you taylor the offense around what your QB CAN do, it is possible that a QB with lesser ratings can be effective.

[Steve-LA Chargers]

But maybe DTR's 94 ST & 87 EN makes him just effective at throwing deep late in a game as a QB like Justin Fields with 96 ST and 84 EN?

You gave me another idea too. From a play design perspective, it feels like this league has come up with the most effective routes possible. I've noticed we keep finding ways to combine the same kind of routes into new plays or we create slight variations of those routes in new plays. Anything super new either fails miserably or becomes part of copy cat mix in future plays. If the routes are the generally the same in the most of the league's effective plays, perhaps we have designed QB ratings out of our plays?

[Justin-Chicago]

But maybe DTR's 94 ST & 87 EN makes him just effective at throwing deep late in a game as a QB like Justin Fields with 96 ST and 84 EN?

Justin Fields doesn’t throw deep late in the game, he just hands off.

[Jerry-Redskins]

Justin with the definitive answer

[Mitch-Oilers]

@ Steve - for PNFL draft rating purposes, DTR is a reach.

However, even as a "reach" based on peer ratings in the draft, look how close he is to MAX ratings. Look how close all players are to MAX ratings. Everyone is a great player with only slight variations. I believe this likely driving the results you are seeing in your testing. With only slight variations in ratings in a particular player, the PPP match up is likely the biggest variable in results.

I pulled the Top 40 QBs based on my weighted ratings scale for the PNFL. If you calculate the avg ratings for each attribute of these players, every attribute avg no more than 1 or 2 points from MAX. Thats a league of stud QBs.

[Mitch-Oilers]

And another thing....

I posted in the Coaches Corner the "readme" text from the VPNFL files. Based on the testing done by the VPNFL team, a 10 point difference in SP between players equated to only a 0.3 secs in 40 time and a 10 point difference in AC equated to only a 0.1 sec in 40 time.

If the VPNFL team testing was accruate, this means a QB with 81 SP and 81 AC is only a hair faster than a QB with 78 SP and 78 AC. You would have to have a QB below 75 SP to make a noticeable difference in performance.

Now, assume that 10 point variance has the similar impact on all attributes for all players? If the 10 point spread has the same impact across the board, we likely won't see any material difference in player performance unless there is a 6+ point difference in attributes.

[Mitch-Oilers]

I decided to run my own experiment.

Constants:
2042 KC and LA rosters
Games played in a dome
Denver CPU PPP used for both team
300 sims run for each block of games

Variable:
Block 1 - KC QB set to MAX in all ratings (SP 81 AC 81 AG 81 ST 96 HA 71 IN 92 DI 84)
Block 2 - KC QB set to 6 points below MAX (SP 75 AC 75 AG 75 ST 90 HA 65 IN 86 DI 78)
Block 3 - KC QB set to 10 points below MAX (SP 71 AC 71 AG 71 ST 86 HA 61 IN 82 DI 74)

Stats for KC QB:
Block 1 - 63.0% 82,101 yards 452 TD 193 INT 95 FMB
Block 2 - 63.5% 80,837 yards 411 TD 192 INT 55 FMB
Block 3 - 61.4% 80,225 yards 455 TD 147 INT 84 FMB

I'm not sure what to read into these numbers.

1) Even with a 10 point spread, a QB surrounded by superstars has no material difference in stats than a MAX QB?
2) Weaker rated QBs are less likely to throw INTs?
3) Since all of our QBs are within 5 points or less of MAX, it doesn't matter who plays QB?
4) QB doesn't matter as much as the other players on the team?
5) A spread of over 10 points is needed for material change in performance?

I don't know...